General-Purpose Technologies

Certain innovations, like steam power, electricity, and the internet, bring about fundamental changes, generating new visions for living and working while igniting further innovations. These are categorized as general-purpose technologies (GPTs) due to their extensive applicability across various sectors. Recognizing these applications requires individuals with foresight.

James Watt, born in 1736, exemplifies such vision. He imagined a reliable energy source that could enhance machinery and improve lives, leading to the creation of a dependable steam engine that powered factories, trains, and ships. Similarly, Thomas Edison aimed to better daily life; in 1879, he showcased an early lightbulb design, famously declaring, “We will make electricity so inexpensive that only the affluent will continue to use candles.”

While these inventions now seem like natural progressions, they were the result of deliberate choices. Investors played a crucial role in making the steam engine and lightbulb a reality. Watt benefited from Matthew Boulton’s advocacy, who negotiated a 17-year extension of Watt’s patent, allowing widespread installation of steam engines in mines and factories across Britain and beyond.

J.P. Morgan's investment in Edison Electric ultimately led to Edison’s ousting in the War of the Currents. Edison’s direct current (DC) system required close proximity to a power plant, whereas Nikola Tesla’s alternating current (AC) could transmit electricity over long distances. Despite Edison’s vocal opposition to AC, the merger of Edison Electric with the largest AC firm, facilitated by Morgan, resulted in the establishment of General Electric, dominating the U.S. electrical market.

Money played a significant role, but ultimately, power was the decisive factor. Without influence, Boulton might not have secured patent extensions, and without Morgan's clout, Edison may have maintained his position in the industry.

Power and Profit Dynamics

The interplay of power and profit—rather than mere merit—propelled the steam engine and AC to prominence. Boulton sought to prevent competitors from replicating the steam engine to maximize his profits, while Morgan favored AC due to its broader reach.

In an alternate scenario, these influential figures could have opted to support different inventions, or various inventors might have received backing. This highlights that technological change is not spontaneous; instead, it is directed by the affluent pursuing profit. This is not inherently negative, but we require checks and balances to prevent unchecked ambition from dominating our lives.

The introduction of steam engines led to longer hours, reduced wages, and unsafe working conditions. However, it also resulted in the concentration of workers in factories, paving the way for union organization. The Steam Engine Makers’ Society (SEM), established in 1824 when unions were illegal, played a pivotal role in advocating for worker rights and contributed to the legalization of unions, eventually becoming a founding member of the Amalgamated Society of Engineers (ASE) in 1851, the most influential trade union in 19th-century Britain. Thus, technological advancements both enabled and necessitated these developments.

To counterbalance excessive ambition, regulation and policy are essential—serving as a stabilizing force amid potential chaos. However, the pace of regulatory response to protect workers has historically been slow, often reacting only after incidents arise.

Artificial Intelligence: The Latest GPT

Today, artificial intelligence represents the newest general-purpose technology. Concerns about its potential dangers are prevalent; technology itself is not inherently perilous, but the intentions of those who create and utilize it can be.

Currently, we witness early stages of AI development; innovation is present, yet a clear vision remains elusive, with only a handful of prominent figures making ethical appeals. Elon Musk advocates for AI to address humanity's critical issues, while Sundar Pichai, Google’s CEO, envisions AI as a tool for combating climate change and disease. Similarly, Satya Nadella of Microsoft aims to reshape our work and lives through AI technologies.

However, we are not yet witnessing the realization of such visions in the same transformative manner as the steam engine or lightbulb. Perhaps the visionary behind AI akin to James Watt remains undiscovered.

As we observe the unfolding narrative of AI, we can glean insights from historical trends. The patterns observed in steam power and electricity are mirrored across various GPTs. To comprehend AI's trajectory, it is vital to recognize the influential figures pursuing profits. We must also contemplate the future we desire and support organizations advocating for policies aligned with our values.

Regulation is reactive; thus, our vigilance can minimize delays in addressing emerging challenges. With each cycle of technological disruption, I maintain an optimistic belief that we can navigate these changes more effectively.

The first video, Will technology shape our future or will we | Deborah Nas | TEDxAlkmaar, discusses the profound impact technology has on shaping our future and the ethical considerations that come with it.

The second video, How Technology Can Shape Soft Power, explores the intersection of technology and global influence, emphasizing how advancements can be leveraged for soft power strategies.