Japan's Dwindling Birth Rate: A Call to Action for the Future
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Chapter 1: Understanding Japan's Birth Rate Crisis
Japan finds itself in a precarious situation as the global population continues to rise while many countries, including Japan, are grappling with sharply declining birth rates. While some may argue that a smaller population equates to fewer issues—less strain on resources, reduced pollution, and less congested urban areas—this perspective overlooks a crucial reality: societies and civilizations thrive on their populations. Japan's predicament is a stark reminder of this truth, as it leads a troubling trend that no nation wishes to emulate.
In response to this alarming trend, the Japanese government has introduced measures aimed at encouraging higher birth rates. Recently, the Japanese parliament approved a budget of $23 billion annually to enhance childcare policies. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has described the upcoming decade as "the last chance" to reverse the decline in birth rates, warning that failure to do so could lead to severe economic contractions, the disappearance of numerous towns, and significant business collapses due to a dwindling workforce. By 2036, if current trends persist, approximately one-third of Japan's population will be over 65 years of age.
This situation should serve as a cautionary tale for other developed nations, as Stephen Shaw, a data scientist and demographer, cautions, "Everything we understand that functions in our societies that depends on people — which is almost everything — is going to change."
Where Japan Stands Today
The year 2023 marked a historic low for Japanese births, with only 727,277 new arrivals—the lowest since record-keeping began in 1899. This figure represents a decrease of about 40,000 births compared to the previous year, continuing a trend of record lows that has persisted for eight consecutive years.
The total fertility rate in Japan, an indicator of the average number of children born to a woman in her lifetime, has plummeted to 1.20, according to the Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare. In some areas, such as Tokyo, this number has even dipped below 1. The replacement level, which is the average needed to maintain a stable population, is 2.1 children per woman. A figure falling below 1 signifies that the population is not even replacing its parents.
Although a gradual decline in birth rates might be manageable, the rapid and sustained decrease Japan is experiencing poses an existential threat to its society.
Alongside declining birth rates, marriage rates have also fallen, while divorce rates have increased, painting a concerning picture of the Japanese family structure.
"Japan will disappear if something doesn't change," warned CEO Elon Musk.
Policies to Revitalize Japan's Population
The window for reversing or at least stabilizing the downward trend in birth rates is quickly closing. By the 2030s, Japan's youth population is projected to decline sharply. Without sufficient new generations, the nation could find itself in a precarious position. To combat this trend, new policies have been introduced, including:
- Monthly payments of $200 per child until they reach 18, regardless of family income.
- Subsidies for childbirth expenses and parental leave.
- Expanded access to daycare for all children, including those whose parents are not employed.
Despite these efforts, there is skepticism surrounding their effectiveness. Many nations have implemented similar policies with only marginal success. "Many countries have tried offering bonuses for each birth, and while the birth rate does increase, it is only slightly. Financial incentives may ease the path to parenthood, but they won't fully address the issue," stated Yamaguchi Shintaro, a PhD from the University of Tokyo. He emphasized the significant gender gap in household responsibilities, noting that women in Japan spend five times more time on domestic duties than men, a stark contrast to other developed nations. A shift toward greater male involvement in childcare could be crucial in tackling this challenge.
Moreover, Japan's corporate culture, characterized by intense dedication to work, needs to adapt to allow parents more time to raise children. For Japan to sustain its society, it must dismantle the barriers that hinder people from having the families they desire.
The Consequences of Population Decline
Experts predict that Japan's population could shrink by 30% by 2070, with a significant portion of the remaining population being elderly. When the workforce becomes predominantly older, the energy and productivity essential for a thriving economy are compromised. This demographic shift could lead to soaring taxes, economic downturns, widespread business failures, and a critical shortage of younger individuals to care for an aging population.
In April 2023, a once-vibrant 76-year-old rural high school closed its doors permanently after its last two students graduated. Between 2002 and 2020, 9,000 schools across Japan have shut down due to insufficient student numbers. The ripple effect of this is that rural areas become less appealing to families, leading to a lack of youth, and once their populations age out, they are left desolate. This phenomenon was dubbed "local extinction" by former Japanese governor Hiroya Masuda in 2015. A 2024 report highlighted that 744 municipalities in Japan are at risk of extinction by 2040.
"The first message I would convey to anyone is to wake up; this will be one of the dominant issues, if not the primary issue, of the 21st century," asserts Darrell Bricker, author of Empty Planet. "This will be like a snowball rolling downhill, gaining momentum as it goes."
With countries like Italy, Spain, and South Korea already in advanced stages of population decline, and birth rates steadily falling across the developed world, from the USA to Ireland, the pressing question arises: can this downward trend be reversed?
There is often misunderstanding surrounding falling birth rates, with many believing that the alternative is infinite growth. However, as infinite growth is unattainable, population decline is erroneously viewed as harmless. It is not about growth; it is about the survival of nations. When birth rates suddenly plummet, as they have in Japan, the very lifeblood of society is at risk.
"We've become accustomed to the notion that things generally improve, but that depends on certain conditions being met. It's not as if the population will smoothly decline to a desirable lower number; rather, it is an ugly process. There are no known solutions—no society has ever successfully navigated this crisis," warns Stephen Shaw.
Richard Gordon is an Ecologist exploring the intersections of the natural world and human civilization. For weekly insights, subscribe to his email list.
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Chapter 2: The Global Implications of Japan's Crisis
In this video, "Japan's new births fall to record low in 2023 | REUTERS," we examine the implications of Japan's declining birth rate and its potential consequences for the country and the world.
The video titled "How Japan deals with its birth rate hitting a record low | DW News" offers insights into the measures Japan is taking to address this critical issue and the challenges that lie ahead.