Chapter 1: Understanding the Tibetan Plateau

The Tibetan Plateau, often referred to as the “Roof of the World,” is a unique geographical area that plays a crucial role in understanding climate change. It spans over 2.5 million square kilometers (966,000 square miles), with more than half of its terrain elevated above 4,000 meters (13,123 feet).

This vast region is encircled by significant mountain ranges, including the Kunlun and Qilian Mountains to the north, the Himalayas and the Karakoram Range to the south, and the Daxue Mountains to the east. Essential rivers such as the Indus, Brahmaputra, Yangtze, Yellow, Mekong, Irrawaddy, and Salween originate from these highlands, providing freshwater to nearly half of the world's population.

Ice melt from the Tibetan Plateau is vital for the health of many major rivers. The plateau harbors the third largest ice mass globally, which includes glaciers from the Hindu Kush Himalayas. However, this ice mass is under severe threat. As highlighted in various studies, accelerated warming has profoundly impacted Himalayan glaciers, leading to significant ice loss. Between 1970 and 2000, 9% of the ice was lost, with an annual water loss of 174 gigatons recorded between 2003 and 2009. To put this into perspective, this amount could provide approximately 123 gallons of water per year for every individual in India.

A 2021 study indicated that glacier mass loss in East Nepal and Bhutan has increased tenfold compared to historical fluctuations since the Little Ice Age. The implications of glacier disappearance are dire, signaling an imminent water crisis. The Himalayas serve as a water source for regions extending from Afghanistan to Vietnam, and scientists note that ice melt in this area is occurring faster than anywhere else on Earth. Even the previously stable Karakoram range is now experiencing erosion.

At the current melt rate, if no substantial efforts are made to mitigate global warming, two-thirds of the remaining Himalayan glaciers may vanish. This loss would drastically reduce freshwater availability for millions, exacerbating existing challenges in a region already grappling with rising temperatures.

As fresh water becomes scarce, agricultural productivity will also decline. In the Himalayan region, farming heavily relies on seasonal water availability, with snowmelt accounting for up to 72% of the water needed for crops, especially in the upper Indus area. Decreased snowmelt due to rising temperatures will only worsen drought conditions, contributing to a cycle of water scarcity and food insecurity.

The first video titled "RAL Seminar | March 2023 - Climate Change and Water Security on the Tibetan Plateau" discusses the critical relationship between climate change and water security in this vital region.

Chapter 2: The Broader Implications of Water Scarcity

The repercussions of diminishing water resources extend far beyond the immediate region. In China, for instance, glacial melt is the primary source of water during dry seasons for 23% of the population living in the western areas. Neighboring countries like Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Uzbekistan exhibit high dependency ratios on rivers fed by the Tibetan Plateau, with 91.4%, 77.7%, and 80% reliance, respectively.

The second video, "The Third Pole: How Climate Change is Affecting the Tibetan Plateau," explores the broader environmental and socio-economic impacts of climate change in this crucial area.

The consequences of glacier melt are compounded by rising surface temperatures. The Tibetan Plateau, due to its vast size, significantly influences global climate patterns. It affects subtropical rain patterns in East and Southeast Asia and intensifies extreme weather events. The warming of the plateau contributes to the formation of freezing rain and heavy snowfall in central southern China, disrupting traditional weather patterns.

As temperatures rise, areas that typically experienced manageable snowfall are now facing extreme weather events, including severe hail and heavy, wet snowstorms. In warmer regions, normal rainfall patterns are disrupted, leading to intense downpours followed by extended dry periods, which can cause flash flooding and soil degradation.

The reduction in snow cover further exacerbates atmospheric heating, as less heat is reflected away from the surface. This increase in temperature leads to more frequent heatwaves and droughts, alternating with periods of devastating flooding. High-elevation lakes also play a role in this cycle, as their winter freeze rates decline, allowing underlying water to warm more rapidly and affecting the overall hydrological cycle.

Water Management: A Complex Challenge

In addition to the environmental impacts of climate change, geophysical changes are worsening the situation. China has initiated numerous water diversion projects on rivers originating from the Tibetan Plateau, aiming to establish itself as Asia's upstream water controller. These projects have had detrimental effects on surrounding ecosystems and downstream communities.

For example, the damming of the Mekong River has resulted in a significant decrease in river height, leading to frequent droughts and crop failures downstream. Many of these projects proceed without thorough environmental assessments, disregarding the needs of nearly a billion people who depend on these water sources.

While manmade interventions pose serious risks, natural threats also exist. Thousands of glacial lakes have formed over millennia, but rising temperatures are destabilizing these bodies of water. The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) has identified 47 glacial lakes in the Himalayas that present significant risks to lower-lying communities. Historical events of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) have already caused loss of life and property.

The most recent GLOF incident occurred in Nepal’s Khumbu Pasang Lhamu Rural Municipality, where two lakes burst, devastating the village of Thame. For more details on this event and its implications, see the article linked below.

Studying Climate Change in Tibet

George Schaller reflected on his research efforts in the Tibetan Plateau, noting a community-driven ecological protection initiative approved by China’s State Council in 2011. This program aims to enhance local livelihoods while safeguarding wildlife and natural resources.

Local herding communities have taken proactive measures, establishing monitoring programs and wildlife conservation efforts. The "one village, one post" project empowers local residents to serve as environmental monitors, fostering a sense of responsibility for their land and resources.

While not without flaws, this localized approach has improved living standards and environmental health. As traditional practices align with contemporary conservation efforts, more communities are engaging in citizen science initiatives, collaborating with scientists to address climate change impacts.

In total, a significant portion of China's territory is now under some form of conservation management led by local communities. This includes a variety of initiatives focused on wildlife, vegetation, and waterway health, all aimed at understanding and mitigating the effects of climate change.

Final Thoughts

Stakeholder engagement is crucial in addressing climate change challenges, as demonstrated by successful initiatives in the Tibetan Plateau. However, the tension between economic development and conservation remains a significant hurdle. Rapidly constructed dams, often lacking comprehensive assessments, exemplify the need for a balanced approach.

As environmental pressures mount, the challenge lies in recognizing the urgency of sustainable practices. The ongoing dialogue between local conservationists and broader governance structures is essential to ensure a resilient future for the Tibetan Plateau and beyond.

• • • An earlier version of this article appeared on the Evidence Files Substack.

Robert Vanwey is the co-director of the Dharma Farm School of Translation and Philosophy and the executive director of the EALS Global Foundation, which focuses on education and technology in environmental disaster mitigation. Follow his work on the Evidence Files Substack for insights into technology, science, and the Himalayas.