Embracing Change: The Inevitable Evolution of Technology
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Chapter 1: The Unseen Evolution
Change is a constant force in our lives. For those of us who have witnessed several decades of technological advancements, the transformation is astonishing. We’ve transitioned from black-and-white television to color, from limited channels to the internet, and now we stand at the dawn of the AI revolution—all within less than a century.
It's fascinating how rapidly we advance, yet many people remain oblivious to this evolution. Much like the proverbial frog in slowly heating water, we often fail to recognize the gradual yet significant changes happening around us. It doesn’t happen overnight; decades of progress lead us to an entirely new ecosystem with different norms and expectations.
Many individuals remain unaware of the impending changes, believing that the current state is sufficient and that there’s no need for further innovation. This mindset is known as the end-of-history bias. Bill Gates famously claimed in the 1990s that the internet would never extend beyond academia, while other experts made erroneous predictions about digital photography and smartphones. History has shown us they were gravely mistaken.
If these so-called experts missed the signs, what chance do we have to predict the next wave of innovation? It’s a daunting thought. We often resist change, finding it challenging to adapt or even accept new technologies. Some may argue this reluctance stems from a form of mental laziness.
Indeed, adapting to change can be tough. You master one skill only to find it outdated. Just think about those experts who once championed VHS tapes, fax machines, or film development. Many of them are now relics of the past.
Those of us who have experienced several decades of technological progression may wonder: what have we learned? Will our experiences help us foresee future developments? Are we equipped for what lies ahead? I have my doubts.
What’s Next?
During a recent visit to San Francisco, I encountered something intriguing: driverless cars. Although I was aware of the rapid advancements in this technology, witnessing numerous Waymo vehicles operating without human drivers was still astonishing.
In conversations with others, many dismiss self-driving cars as a passing trend—something not serious or relevant to their lives. Yet, they are already navigating our streets today.
Observing one of these vehicles maneuver through the intricate landscape of urban traffic is nothing short of extraordinary. Sure, you can cite limitations like slow speeds or reliability issues. However, these vehicles transport passengers efficiently and affordably.
A colleague expressed skepticism, asserting that we wouldn’t see self-driving cars in our lifetime. My response was simple: we are witnessing it happen right now! Despite having seen these cars in action, he still questioned their legitimacy. What gives?
Let me be clear: self-driving cars are already here, and soon, you won’t be behind the wheel. The initial hurdles have been addressed; the remaining challenges are merely about refinement and scaling up the technology.
Instead of investing in a new vehicle, consider that robo-taxis will soon be your primary mode of transport. For taxi drivers or anyone in a driving profession, it’s time to seek new opportunities rather than resist the change. The future is now, and it won't necessarily be forgiving.
A century ago, horse breeders faced a similar dilemma. They resisted the inevitable, leading to their decline. Technology is an unstoppable force, and it's advancing rapidly. You can either adapt or be left behind.
Back to the Future
Many of us are familiar with the iconic 1980s film about time travel, showcasing flying cars and other advanced technologies. However, when 2015 came and went without these innovations, we began to regard future predictions with skepticism.
The film depicted a world lacking the internet, smartphones, and the myriad advancements that have emerged with social media and applications. It was fundamentally inaccurate for a reason: flying cars simply aren’t practical. We have planes and drones for that purpose, but cars are designed for the road.
Just because we don’t have flying vehicles doesn’t mean progress has stalled. In fact, the reality of our technological capabilities far exceeds the film’s imaginative projections. You carry an incredible device in your pocket that enables you to book flights, learn languages, communicate globally, create music and videos, and share all of it instantly—none of which was predicted in that film.
As we acknowledge our current capabilities, we must remember that this technology will only continue to improve. The metaphor of the frog in hot water is fitting; we often fail to notice change until it’s too late.
Artificial Intelligence
Artificial Intelligence (AI) also poses a significant challenge. I could have drafted this article using ChatGPT, and soon, such tools may replace human writers altogether. While I appreciate writing and engaging with you, the reality is that AI is poised to take over many professions.
AI will render numerous jobs obsolete, similar to how robotics transformed blue-collar positions. There’s no denying it. The growth of technology is exponential, while our adaptability remains linear.
So, what options do we have? Unfortunately, not many. Many will find themselves sidelined, engaging in leisure activities while others leverage these innovations for productivity. AI can be a powerful tool for those who embrace it, but for many, the realization of their obsolescence will come too late.
What is the solution? Frankly, no one knows. However, denial is not the answer. Ignoring the issue or fighting against it will only lead to further challenges.
A significant change is on the horizon, and we have three choices: ride the wave, hide, or risk being swept away. The choice is yours.
Whatever path you choose, strive to avoid becoming the next Blockbuster, Kodak, or horse breeder. Those who fail to recognize and adapt to change will falter. Change is inevitable, and it is accelerating. Don’t be caught off guard; don’t resist. Embrace it, and who knows? It may lead to positive outcomes after all.
Safe travels into the future—though perhaps not in a flying car.
The first video titled "All Models Are Wrong, But Some Are Useful": A Guide for Investors explores the importance of understanding models and predictions in the context of investments.
The second video, "All models are wrong, some are useful…but do we know which ones?" by Shaun McGirr from Dataiku, delves into the complexities of predictive modeling and its implications for decision-making.