Chapter 1: The Ambition of Martian Colonization

Elon Musk has set an ambitious target to reach Mars by 2024, with plans to establish human presence on the Red Planet within a decade. As the development of the Starship progresses, this vision seems increasingly achievable. Musk's ultimate objective, however, is far grander: to create a fleet of a thousand Starships, transporting thousands of settlers to Mars annually, ultimately constructing the first city on the planet. Yet, lurking on the Martian surface is a formidable danger that Musk cannot eliminate. Will this perilous aspect thwart his plans for a Martian city?

Mars is not the second Earth that Musk envisions. The planet's soil is harmful, the surface is exposed to harsh radiation, temperatures are extremely low, the atmosphere is merely 1% that of Earth's, and there are no readily available energy sources like solar or wind. Surviving there is an immense challenge, let alone thriving.

Nevertheless, many of these obstacles can be addressed through engineering. Habitats that are pressurized, heated, and shielded can provide safety against the harsh environment. Vertical farms could yield food, while extensive solar installations might generate sufficient energy to sustain the base. While life on Mars won't be easy for its pioneers, with the right technology, survival is feasible.

However, the thin atmosphere presents a challenge that is more complex to mitigate. The low atmospheric pressure not only poses immediate risks to human life but also allows larger meteoroids to hit the surface without disintegrating. Mars, being closer to the Asteroid Belt than Earth, is more susceptible to frequent meteorite impacts.

NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) has been observing the Red Planet since 2006, capturing stunning images of landslides, dust storms, and potential signs of water. Its detailed imagery allows scientists to identify new impact craters by comparing earlier photographs with recent ones. MRO data reveals that Mars is struck by approximately 200 small meteorites annually. However, when referring to "small," we're not talking about pebbles but rather objects large enough to create craters measuring at least 3.9 meters in diameter.

These larger meteorites, which would burn up in Earth's atmosphere, can hit Mars with full force, causing far more significant impacts than those experienced on our planet.

Though MRO has not been operational long enough to document catastrophic impact events, we can infer their potential consequences. Given Mars' proximity to the Asteroid Belt, significant impacts could occur every few decades to a century. Musk's initial Mars base may avoid these dire consequences, as it will be small and operational for a limited time. However, the long-term city he envisions will operate for decades, increasing the likelihood of a catastrophic meteorite strike.

In the video "Martian Democracy | Elon Musk, SpaceX | Code Conference 2016," Musk discusses his vision for a self-sustaining city on Mars, highlighting the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.

The smaller meteorites present their own risks. If a beach-ball-sized meteorite impacts the city, it could breach the pressure vessel, causing a rapid drop in air pressure. While this may not lead to immediate suffocation, the sudden decrease in pressure would cause bodily fluids to boil, resulting in severe consequences for those inside.

Statistically, if the Martian city were to be the size of New York, it would face such impacts roughly every 20 years. Although infrequent, these incidents could be catastrophic.

To mitigate these risks, a base could be buried beneath several meters of Martian soil. This would not only protect inhabitants from small meteorite strikes but also reduce radiation exposure. Designing airlocks throughout the city would ensure that even if one section experiences decompression, the rest remains pressurized.

However, the true Achilles' heel lies elsewhere.

Mars's location near the Asteroid Belt results in a higher frequency of medium to large impacts. These larger strikes can eject vast amounts of dust into the atmosphere, creating shockwaves that can travel for miles, akin to an earthquake. Living in a buried city during such events would be perilous, as the shockwaves could cause structural damage to the habitats and lead to liquefaction of the Martian soil, potentially entombing the inhabitants.

Even if the city's residents survive the initial disaster, they would face an even graver threat. The dust kicked into the atmosphere could block sunlight for extended periods, leading to drastic climate changes similar to a nuclear winter.

Solar energy is the most viable energy source on Mars, even though the planet receives less sunlight than Earth. Due to the thin atmosphere, wind energy is not feasible, and transporting nuclear materials to Mars is impractical. However, Mars experiences frequent dust storms that can last for weeks, obstructing sunlight and creating energy shortages.

Martian cities will require extensive battery backups to navigate these energy droughts, as all technology sustaining life depends on power. Unfortunately, surviving a dust storm lasting a year or more is nearly impossible; the energy reserves of any city would not last long enough to sustain its population.

In the video "Elon Musk: Mars rocket will fly next year," Musk outlines his plans for Mars travel and discusses the potential hurdles in sustaining life on the planet.

How likely are these larger impacts?

The precise frequency of large impacts on Mars remains uncertain, as dating impact craters accurately is challenging. However, there are regular near-miss events involving comets and asteroids that come alarmingly close to the Red Planet. For instance, in 2008, a football-field-sized asteroid posed a 4% chance of colliding with Mars.

Imagine receiving news that your city has a 4% chance of catastrophic destruction. Would you continue to live there?

These near-misses occur frequently, and it is only a matter of time before a significant strike happens. It could be a few decades or even a century, but eventually, it will occur and could have devastating consequences for anyone on Mars.

Among the many existential threats posed by asteroids, the reliance on solar energy is the most critical vulnerability of Musk's Martian city. In the short term, meteorite impacts may cause localized destruction and fatalities every few decades. However, larger strikes could obliterate the entire city or leave it trapped in energy-deprived conditions due to dust storms. To succeed on this treacherous planet, Musk will need advanced technologies for impact detection and prevention—an area where humanity still faces challenges on Earth. Without such innovations, Mars will remain a perilous environment for human habitation.